According to the theory of four-year cycles, Bitcoin could only have a month to the bear market. This was explained by Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of the crypto analytics platform Alphractal, recently on X. Accordingly, Bitcoin could still rise to more than 140,000 US dollars in the next few weeks and then reach its cycle peak in October.

However, Wedson admits that thanks to the presence of large institutional investors and the adoption of Bitcoin, this cycle clearly differs from other cycles by the traditional financial system: “The real question is whether this fractal remains reliable in the face of massive speculation with ETFs and the growing institutional demand.”

The analyst is curious to “whether the new wave of crypto enthusiasts is right with their claim that the four-year cycle is over and Bitcoin is now going to rise endlessly.” Alternatively, 2025 could be “the last breath before a sharp correction”. In the following bear market, BTC 2026 could fall to less than 50,000 US dollars, according to him.

For several months now, rumours have been about a possible end to the four-year cycle. The largest driver is the decreasing importance of halved block reward with every half-heating. The adoption of BTC as a reserve asset of both states and companies, regulatory relaxations in the USA and the ever-increasing access to the market further strengthen the thesis.

The CEO of On-Chain Analysis House Crypto Quant, Ki Young Ju, also recently declared: “The Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.” According to Ju, the current process, in which large investors accumulate during bear markets and sell in bull markets, has been replaced by institutional actors through long-term holding strategies.