While crypto investors eagerly await the launch of the first XRP Spot ETF tomorrow, Thursday, on-chain data points to a development that could be equally important for the price of Ripple.
According to a report by XRPWallets, Coinbase’s XRP holdings have declined significantly over the past three months. From an original 970 million coins held in 52 wallets at the beginning of June 2025, the crypto exchange’s XRP holdings fell to just 99 million XRP, distributed across six wallets in mid-September 2025. This means that Ripple investors have withdrawn a total of 871 million XRP, currently worth $2.6 billion, in a relatively short period of time.
Traditionally, a sharp decline in a cryptocurrency’s reserves on major trading platforms is considered a bullish sign. If supply decreases while demand remains stable or increases, this could result in a rising XRP price in the medium to long term. There is now speculation within the crypto community that institutional wallets, in particular, are accumulating large amounts of XRP in preparation for the launch of spot ETFs in the US.
However, this puts the development on Coinbase into perspective: Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, was able to increase its XRP reserves significantly during the same period. Some large Ripple investors may have simply switched their preferred platform.
Ripple ETF launch approaches
With Rex Osprey’s XRP Spot ETF, traditional investors for the first time gain easy access to the Ripple coin, which was previously reserved for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Unlike traditional ETF applications, which can be blocked by months-long SEC delays, the two collaborating companies are using the structure of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“40 Act”) for their Ripple index fund. This allows them to bypass the lengthy approval process, while financial companies such as Franklin Templeton, VanEck, and ARKInvest will likely have to wait until October for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval.
According to Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, the XRP Spot ETFs could achieve net inflows of up to $8 billion in their first year of trading. Given the significantly lower market capitalization of the Ripple coin, this would correspond to net inflows of around $100 billion for Bitcoin Spot ETFs. The launch of the Ripple ETFs “changes everything,” commented crypto influencer Crypto AiMan optimistically. In his view, the XRP price could “explode” as early as Thursday – driven by the listing of the first XRP index fund.
Nevertheless, investors should approach the euphoria surrounding the ETF launch with caution. Both the pronounced centralization in the Ripple ecosystem and the comparatively low reputation of Rex Osprey in the institutional environment could temporarily limit the upside potential of the XRP price. A sustained bullish trend ultimately depends on more factors than just the ETF hype, which could fizzle out in a few weeks. In particular, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision this evening is likely to be a game-changer for Bitcoin, XRP, and the entire crypto market.
