In the current bull market, it seems to have become almost standard practice in the crypto sector to come up with increasingly bold Bitcoin predictions. Price targets ranging from $500,000 to $11.6 million by 2035 are making the rounds – impressive yet hard to imagine. We have taken a closer look at the underlying models. What assumptions are behind them, and how plausible are they really?

Bitcoin: From a niche to the spotlight

Hardly any asset has been as polarizing in recent years as Bitcoin. For some, it is digital gold and the world’s best inflation hedge; for others, it’s a speculative risk with no intrinsic value. Price forecasts vary accordingly: While “conservative” analysts already call $500,000 a milestone, utopian models see Bitcoin reaching several million in the coming years. But which of these are credible, and where does fantasy begin?

Bitwise: $1.3 Million by 2035

One of the most well-founded forecasts currently comes from Bitwise Asset Management. In its report “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” the research team predicts a Bitcoin price of $1.3 million by 2035 – equivalent to an annual return of 28.3 percent from today’s level.

This forecast is based on three factors. First, institutional demand for Bitcoin is just beginning to gain momentum. Large funds, pension funds, and even so-called family offices (private asset managers of wealthy families) are increasingly aligning their portfolios with Bitcoin. Bitwise estimates that this demand alone could drive between $1 and $5 trillion into the market. Second, Bitcoin’s supply remains strictly limited. Of the maximum 21 million coins, over 94 percent are already in circulation. Third, there is growing concern that governments will reduce their debt by devaluing fiat currencies. This environment increases the attractiveness of scarce assets such as gold or Bitcoin.

Companies, ETFs, and States: Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve

Furthermore, it’s not just private investors and institutions that are accumulating Bitcoin. Companies and even states have also begun to build BTC as a strategic reserve. Strategy is particularly notable, continuously buying and now holding around 632,000 Bitcoin – almost three percent of the maximum supply. This makes the company the world’s largest private Bitcoin holder.

In addition, there are exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have raised massive capital since their approval in the US in January 2024. Together, ETFs and similar vehicles now hold around seven percent of all Bitcoin in circulation. At the same time, states are also increasingly acting as holders. According to official figures, the US owns almost 198,000 BTC, making it the largest state-owned Bitcoin holder. But countries such as China, the United Kingdom, and El Salvador have also built up significant reserves. All of this is contributing to a decline in the available supply on the market.

Banks and research firms: conservative to bullish

Other financial institutions have also presented ambitious forecasts. Standard Chartered expects a price of $500,000 by 2028. Alliance Bernstein sees Bitcoin at around $1 million by 2033. ARK Invest goes even further, expecting $1.5 million to $2.5 million by 2030. The most extreme is the strategy study, which predicts a price of $21 million by 2046.

This reveals a clear trend: Even conservative banks are predicting Bitcoin prices in the six-figure range, while the most bullish forecasts are projecting sky-high prices.

Alternative Models: The Most Utopian Forecasts

Models from the crypto scene itself go even further. The stock-to-flow model, which has been widely observed for years and is equally controversial, predicts a Bitcoin price of $11.6 million for 2035. The so-called power-law model calculates at around $1.5 million. And the autocorrelation exchange rate model (BAERM) assumes around $7.5 million.

All three approaches have in common that they extrapolate historical patterns or scarcity logic without considering external factors such as regulation or technological disruption. Critics, therefore, accuse them of being overly optimistic and one-sided.

Ethereum as a Comparison

Bitcoin isn’t the only thing that inspires imagination. Ethereum is also being given ambitious forecasts. The major British bank Standard Chartered expects a price of $7,500 by 2025 and, in the long term, even $25,000 by the end of the decade. Institutional treasury firms such as BitMine and SharpLink are already accumulating billions in ETH.

Realism Check: Between Dream and Reality

As impressive as these figures are, investors should exercise caution. The forecasts depend on several uncertain factors. While the regulatory climate in the US has become significantly more favorable since 2024, political shifts remain a risk. Institutional demand could also actually move trillions – or fizzle out if the narrative changes. Added to this are technological risks such as advances in quantum computing, which could challenge the security of the Bitcoin network in the long term.

As a result, more conservative scenarios in the range of $500,000 to $1.5 million appear more plausible. Models that predict $7 million or even $11.6 million are more likely to show the enormous range of possible future scenarios than a reliable forecast.

Bitcoin thrives on grand narratives – and price predictions are part of that. Whether it’s $500,000, $1.3 million, or $11.6 million: each number says less about tomorrow’s reality than about today’s expectations and hopes. For investors, this means: Utopias can inspire – but one’s own investment strategy should always be based on conservative assumptions and clear risk management.